EXCLUSIVE POLL: 4th Congressional District race between Love, McAdams widens by 6 points


    A new Dixie Strategies/KUTV 2News public opinion survey with voters in Utah's 4th Congressional District reports a 6 point lead for Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams over Republican incumbent Rep. Mia Love. (Photo and Graphic: KUTV)

    (KUTV) -- An exclusive poll by KUTV 2News and Dixie Strategies with voters in Utah's 4th Congressional District reports a 6 point lead for Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams over Republican incumbent Rep. Mia Love.

    The responses to the survey were gathered October 25, 2018, with a sample size of 936 likely voters. It's the first poll to report McAdams in the lead.

    A new Dixie Strategies/KUTV 2News public opinion survey with voters in Utah's 4th Congressional District reports a 6 point lead for Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams over Republican incumbent Rep. Mia Love. (Photo and Graphic: KUTV)

    The Love/McAdams race is Utah's most heated with New York Times Upshot poll released Friday that had the contenders tied at 45-45 percent, with 9 percent undecided — and a 4.7 percent margin of error.

    However, the Florida-based polling outfit Dixie Strategies reports the divide between Love and McAdams has widened with roughly 43.05 to 49.51 percent, respectively.

    Scott Riding, managing partner at Y2 Analytics and Love campaign pollster, issued the following statement in regards to the KUTV/Dixie Strategies poll:

    Robodial polls (even when supplemented by other methods) have an inaccurate history in Utah. The Salt Lake Tribune had a poll with a similar robodialing approach in the 2016 race that ended up being biased toward the Democratic candidate by 19 points. Additionally, the results of this poll are out of step with all other non-partisan polls. This is certainly an outlier.

    However, the confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is 95 percent with a 3.2 percent margin of error, reported Dixie Strategies. Approximately 7.44 percent of 4th District voters are undecided, the survey says.

    Brian Graham, managing partner of Dixie Strategies, said:

    Time and again our polls have proven accurate and we have been rated one of the least biased polls in America.

    All respondents interviewed in the survey were part of a fully representative sample based on the latest voter registration figures and turnout models built using recent election data, Woodard added.

    Additional survey results report that McAdams overall is more favored by his political party than Love is with a 61 percent "very favorable" rate among Democrats while Love has a 44 percent "very favorable" rate with Republicans.

    The survey of 4th District voters went beyond the House race. It included questions about President Donald Trump, Gov. Gary Herbert, Mitt Romney and the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Jenny Wilson and the former Massachusetts governor.

    Click below to read the entire survey report. For overall results, scroll down.

    The overall results are as follows:

    Which of the following best describes your opinion of President Donald Trump?
    Very Favorable - 29.67%
    Somewhat Favorable - 15.00%
    Somewhat Unfavorable - 10.59%
    Very Unfavorable - 40.10%
    Undecided - 4.65%

    Which of the following best describes your opinion of Governor Gary Herbert?
    Very Favorable - 44.21%
    Somewhat Favorable - 30.20%
    Somewhat Unfavorable - 15.10%
    Very Unfavorable - 6.87%
    Undecided - 3.62%

    Which of the following best describes your opinion of Mitt Romney?
    Very Favorable - 40.67%
    Somewhat Favorable - 23.11%
    Somewhat Unfavorable -17.38%
    Very Unfavorable -16.17%
    Undecided - 2.68%

    If the election for US Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?
    Republican Mitt Romney- 52.74%
    Democrat Jenny Wilson - 37.98%
    Another Candidate -3.62%
    Undecided - 5.66%

    Which of the following best describes your opinion of Congresswoman Mia Love?
    Very Favorable - 27.33%
    Somewhat Favorable - 20.21%
    Somewhat Unfavorable -16.23%
    Very Unfavorable -34.24%
    Undecided - 1.99%

    Which of the following best describes your opinion of Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams?
    Very Favorable - 33.40%
    Somewhat Favorable - 25.08%
    Somewhat Unfavorable -19.92%
    Very Unfavorable -16.86%
    Undecided - 4.74%

    If the election for US Congress were held today, for whom would you vote?
    Republican Mia Love - 43.05%
    Democrat Ben McAdams - 49.51%
    Undecided -7.44%

    A new Dixie Strategies/KUTV 2News public opinion survey with voters in Utah's 4th Congressional District reports a 6 point lead for Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams over Republican incumbent Rep. Mia Love. (Photo and Graphic: KUTV)

    A new Dixie Strategies/KUTV 2News public opinion survey with voters in Utah's 4th Congressional District reports a 6 point lead for Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams over Republican incumbent Rep. Mia Love. (Photo and Graphic: KUTV)




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